Publikationen

@article{Toussaint2025,

title = {Navigating demographic challenges: The impact of increasing social contribution rates on tax revenue and distribution},

author = {Philipp Toussaint and Sebastian Schultis and Stefan Seuffert},

editor = {Elsevier B.V.},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X25000489},

doi = {doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100593},

issn = {2212-828X},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-30},

urldate = {2025-06-30},

journal = {The Journal of the Economics of Ageing},

volume = {32},

pages = {10},

abstract = {The demographic transition poses significant fiscal challenges to pay-as-you-go social security systems, particularly in ageing societies like Germany. While extensive research has analyzed the direct effects of demographic change on rising contribution rates, the secondary effects of the income tax system that arise from the deductibility of contributions have received little attention. This study addresses this gap by examining how the tax treatment of social security contributions influences distribution of the demographic burden. Based on detailed microdata from the German Income and Expenditure Survey (EVS) and official income tax statistics, we apply a generational accounting framework to analyze intergenerational redistribution effects. As a secondary finding, we also identify intragenerational redistribution resulting from the tax deductibility of proportional social security contributions under a progressive income tax schedule. Our findings reveal that future generations are disproportionately affected by declining income tax revenues, while current generations benefit from an average tax relief of 47 percent. Moreover, a regressive burden distribution is indicated: individuals in the lowest income quintile face an effective burden of 91 percent, as compared to 62 percent in the top quintile. These results underscore the importance of accounting for indirect tax effects when evaluating the long-term sustainability and equity of social insurance reforms.},

keywords = {fiscal policy, fiscal sustainability, Fiskalische Nachhaltigkeit, generational accounting, Generationenbilanzierung, Steuerpolitik},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Schultis2025b,

title = {Non-Contributory Benefits in Germany – An Analysis Using Generational Accounting},

author = {Sebastian Schultis and Sebastian Stramka},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1515/zsr-2024-0023},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-03-22},

urldate = {2025-03-22},

journal = {Zeitschrift für Sozialreform / Journal of Social Policy Research},

issue = {Online first},

keywords = {fiscal sustainability, Fiskalische Nachhaltigkeit, generational accounting, Generationenbilanzierung, intergenerational burden sharing},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Raffelhüschen2024e,

title = {Ehrbarer Staat? Update 2024 der Generationenbilanz. Das Rentenpaket II},

author = {Bernd Raffelhüschen and Sebastian Schultis and Stefan Seuffert and Sebastian Stramka},

url = {https://www.stiftung-marktwirtschaft.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Argumente/Argument_176_Update_2024_Ehrbarer_Staat.pdf},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-09-04},

urldate = {2024-09-04},

journal = {Argumente zu Marktwirtschaft und Politik},

volume = {176},

keywords = {fiscal sustainability, Fiskalische Nachhaltigkeit, generational accounting, Generationenbilanzierung, Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Raffelhüschen2022b,

title = {Status quo und Ausgabenprojektionen der Beamtenversorgung},

author = {Bernd Raffelhüschen and Tobias Kohlstruck},

url = {https://www.beck-elibrary.de/10.15358/0340-1650-2022-6/wist-wirtschaftswissenschaftliches-studium-jahrgang-51-2022-heft-6

},

isbn = {0340-1650},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-06-23},

urldate = {2022-06-23},

journal = {WiSt - Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium},

volume = {6},

issue = {6},

pages = {27-34},

abstract = {Da die Beamtenpopulation deutlich älter als die Gesamtbevölkerung ist, gehen die kohortenstarken Jahrgänge bereits in den Ruhestand. Allein in den letzten zehn Jahren haben sich die jährlichen Versorgungsausgaben der Gebietskörperschaften um50 % erhöht, wovon insbesondere die (westdeutschen) Bundesländer betroffen sind. In den kommenden Jahren ist mit einem weiteren Anstieg der Versorgungsausgaben zu rechnen, wobei sich der reindemografische Effekt bis Ende des Jahrzehnts abschwächen wird. Auch wenn die Altersstruktur der Beamten sowie verfassungsrechtliche Vorgaben einer schnellen Verringerung der Versorgungsausgaben entgegenstehen, sollte der Staat in Zukunft auf eine restriktivere Verbeamtungspolitik mit Augen maß und eine deutlich stärkere Kapitaldeckung der Versorgungszusagen setzen, um die intergenerative Ungleichverteilung zu verringern.},

keywords = {Alterssicherung, Beamtenversorgung, Demografie und Arbeitsmarkt, fiscal sustainability, Fiskalische Nachhaltigkeit},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Wimmesberger2022,

title = {Myopic Fiscal Policy during the COVID-19 Pandemic and its Intergenerational Burden},

author = {Florian Wimmesberger and Stefan Seuffert},

url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644008.2022.2056594},

doi = {10.1080/09644008.2022.2056594},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-04-01},

urldate = {2022-04-01},

journal = {German Politics},

abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly affected global social and economic activities. While German economic output has declined dramatically, the German federal government’s reactions to the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic have resulted in an unprecedented public deficit. Leading politicians urge repaying the debts induced by the pandemic, as this rather myopic fiscal policy raises questions regarding fiscal sustainability. This study addresses policymakers who are designing amortisation solutions; employing the method of generational accounting provides fundamental insights into the effects of diverse amortisation scenarios on intergenerational burden sharing. The results demonstrate that current and future generations are unequally burdened depending on the period, instrument and amortisation target. These findings indicate that a long-term amortisation process initiated promptly after the COVID-19 crisis is crucial for intergenerational equity.},

keywords = {COVID-19, fiscal policy, fiscal sustainability, generational account, intergenerational burden sharing},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}