Publikationen

@article{Toussaint2025,

title = {Navigating demographic challenges: The impact of increasing social contribution rates on tax revenue and distribution},

author = {Philipp Toussaint and Sebastian Schultis and Stefan Seuffert},

editor = {Elsevier B.V.},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X25000489},

doi = {doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100593},

issn = {2212-828X},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-30},

urldate = {2025-06-30},

journal = {The Journal of the Economics of Ageing},

volume = {32},

pages = {10},

abstract = {The demographic transition poses significant fiscal challenges to pay-as-you-go social security systems, particularly in ageing societies like Germany. While extensive research has analyzed the direct effects of demographic change on rising contribution rates, the secondary effects of the income tax system that arise from the deductibility of contributions have received little attention. This study addresses this gap by examining how the tax treatment of social security contributions influences distribution of the demographic burden. Based on detailed microdata from the German Income and Expenditure Survey (EVS) and official income tax statistics, we apply a generational accounting framework to analyze intergenerational redistribution effects. As a secondary finding, we also identify intragenerational redistribution resulting from the tax deductibility of proportional social security contributions under a progressive income tax schedule. Our findings reveal that future generations are disproportionately affected by declining income tax revenues, while current generations benefit from an average tax relief of 47 percent. Moreover, a regressive burden distribution is indicated: individuals in the lowest income quintile face an effective burden of 91 percent, as compared to 62 percent in the top quintile. These results underscore the importance of accounting for indirect tax effects when evaluating the long-term sustainability and equity of social insurance reforms.},

keywords = {fiscal policy, fiscal sustainability, Fiskalische Nachhaltigkeit, generational accounting, Generationenbilanzierung, Steuerpolitik},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Schultis2025b,

title = {Non-Contributory Benefits in Germany – An Analysis Using Generational Accounting},

author = {Sebastian Schultis and Sebastian Stramka},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1515/zsr-2024-0023},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-03-22},

urldate = {2025-03-22},

journal = {Zeitschrift für Sozialreform / Journal of Social Policy Research},

issue = {Online first},

keywords = {fiscal sustainability, Fiskalische Nachhaltigkeit, generational accounting, Generationenbilanzierung, intergenerational burden sharing},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Raffelhüschen2024e,

title = {Ehrbarer Staat? Update 2024 der Generationenbilanz. Das Rentenpaket II},

author = {Bernd Raffelhüschen and Sebastian Schultis and Stefan Seuffert and Sebastian Stramka},

url = {https://www.stiftung-marktwirtschaft.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Argumente/Argument_176_Update_2024_Ehrbarer_Staat.pdf},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-09-04},

urldate = {2024-09-04},

journal = {Argumente zu Marktwirtschaft und Politik},

volume = {176},

keywords = {fiscal sustainability, Fiskalische Nachhaltigkeit, generational accounting, Generationenbilanzierung, Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Bahnsen2023,

title = {Curbing the Demographic ‘Drifting Dune’ in Long-Term Care Insurance Financing: The Case of Germany},

author = {Lewe Bahnsen and Florian Wimmesberger},

url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/issr.12315},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-03-13},

urldate = {2023-01-01},

journal = {International Social Security Review},

volume = {76},

issue = {1},

pages = {35-56},

abstract = {Long-term care provision and financing are becoming increasingly important matters in all ageing economies. Therefore, a major challenge for policy makers is to strike a balance between adequate care and sustainable financing. In this study, we evaluate the proposal of a so-called sustainability factor in German long-term care insurance. Considering changes in the beneficiary-contributor ratio, it aims for a rule-based consideration of demographic dynamics to alleviate pressure on long-term care financing. Using the framework of generational accounting, we demonstrate that this proposal could have a relieving effect on finances, depending on the share of involvement of current and future generations. It may offer an option for pay-as-you-go long-term care insurance systems worldwide that need to curb the impact of ageing societies. Therefore, this article addresses policy makers tasked with designing a sustainable financing model for long-term care insurance. It demonstrates that the sustainability factor represents a step towards sustainable finances and, thus, it might be one component of a more comprehensive reform package.},

keywords = {demography, generational accounting, intergenerational burden sharing, Long-term care insurance, sustainability},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}